Black Swan

I just finished the "Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb. The central premise is that uncertainty and unpredictability dominate our world much more than people like to admit.

The title comes from the idea that if your theory is that "all swans are white," you could see literally millions of white swans and have a lot of proof that your theory is right. But it would take only a single black swan to prove your theory wrong. In other words, we really can't know something is 100% right but we can prove that something is 100% wrong.

Applying this to government and public policy, we can find a very simple method to make our government better and more effective. If we pass a law that is supposed to do x, let's measure to see if it is actually doing x. If it is not, then we know that law is ineffective and should be repealed.

Two quick examples:

Premise: installing red-light cameras will increase driver safety and reduce accidents.
Reality: several studies have shown that these cameras actually increase accidents because of people who should have ran the red-light but instead slam on their brakes causing others to rear-end them.
If government made sense: those cameras would be uninstalled.

Premise: Outlawing marijuana will reduce people's usage of it.
Reality: Nope.
If government made sense: decriminalize it and look at other alternative to reduce usage.

Science Fiction

I'm a big fan of science fiction. I read a lot of it. I like the movies. I've even tried my hand at writing science fiction. The problem I've been having lately is that science fact is moving too fast. I have started a number of short stories only to have new discoveries make them obsolete before I have a chance to finish the stories. It's an amazing feeling. I've been watching a lot of TedTalks recently (because they are streaming on Netflix). And I am amazed at what's coming. Self-aware robots, regenerating missing limbs, doubling lifespans, new ways to live, new planets to explore, etc., etc. I'm particularly interested in how the government affects these developments. China has a very aggressive space program. Japan has a very ambitious medical program. Europe is developing the newest alternative energies. America....America pretty much lets private entities do what they want. There's something to be said for all the approaches, but I'm rooting for the home team. I want America on top of the latest science breakthroughs. The latest space technologies are going to be expensive and complicated. The government may not have to do it alone, but it will need to lend a hand. I also want science that is free from politics. Biotech is booming outside of America's borders because of politically motivated obstacles placed on stem cell research. Alternative energy policies change from year to year because of pressure from the oil industries, paving the way for Europe to claim the field. The robots still worry me though. I don't quite trust them. Japan is welcome to them.

Grade Inflation

I was thinking about grade inflation the other day and it was bothering me. Then I read in the Maryland Gazette about the new county grading policy and it became relevant. Why are we so afraid of failing people? Some people fail. That's the nature of life. Some people are smart and will get straight A's, other's will fail. We can't all be above-average. I understand the pressures that the schools and teachers must be under. Every parent wants their kid to do well. If you're the teacher who is failing everyone, that brings down the statistics for the school and all of a sudden funding might be cut. That's pressure. If you give a kid an F, then you'll get flack from their family. If you give them a D or C-, then they can probably live with that. You won't hear complaints when you round up an 88 to an A. The thing is, it's dishonest and insulting for everyone when you inflate grades. The whole point of grades is to establish whether you know the subject matter or not. If you send people into the world with an A in US history, I'm going to assume they know about the constitution and the Civil war. It's frustrating talking to people who have graduated high school and don't know how to read or what the Civil war was. It's false advertising. When I hire someone with a high school degree, I expect them to know certain things. When I hire someone who received A's and B's in school, I have a higher expectation. When their grades are inflated, I don't know what to expect. And that leads to degree inflation. It used to be that a person with a college degree was pretty assured of getting a job. A college degree meant something. But now, with grade inflation and degree inflation, a degree means that you paid money to a school for a couple years. College graduates are unemployed in record numbers. I place part of the blame on a system that has allowed unqualified people to obtain college degrees in order to make them feel good and generate student loan income. Anyway, Kudos to all those teachers out there who still have the gumption to fail a kid who deserves it. (disclaimer: I never failed a class, per se, I did fail to receive credit when I just stopped showing up to one elective. And my 88's were never rounded up to an A. I came by my B's honestly.)

Political Courage

I've been thinking about my last post and how elected leaders tend to wait until the majority of people agree with them. In other words they don't lead, they follow. It's always been that way, even George Washington seemed to understand that slavery was bad, but the votes weren't with him. Even Abraham Lincoln's first move as president was to propose a constitutional amendment which would allow slavery forever (look it up!). It wasn't until the Civil War had erupted and the majority of the voters recognized the evil of slavery. In race relations presidents like the Roosevelt's made small gestures to today's views but they lacked the majority support to make any major policy changes. Gay civil rights are in roughly the same phase right now. I would wager that most politicians recognize the inherent inequality in treating some people differently. When the majority of voters let them, I'm sure they will be happy to come out in favor of it. There are a number of libertarian ideas which also fit into that boat. The drug war against marijuana, for instance, makes no intellectual or economic sense. But the majority of voters seem to be for it, therefore the politicians refuse to make waves. It makes me wonder, how would people react to a leader who actually took the lead on an issue? What do you think?

Same Sex Marriage

I support same sex marriages. It's the right thing to do. It's the fair thing to do. It's the just thing to do. And I'm not just saying that because as a family lawyer it will lead to more work for me down the road :) It's an interesting issue because there are no good arguments against it. If anyone would like to suggest any, please feel free to comment. It's an interesting issue because of how politicians dance around it. We live in a democracy so if the majority of people want to pick on a minority, it's hard to find a politician brave enough to challenge the majority. That brave politician will quickly find themselves unemployed. Nothing about the argument for or against same sex marriages have changed in recent years, the change has been in public opinion. For the first time, the majority of people are in favor of it. They have realized that it's a non-issue. Same sex marriages do not affect most of us. They have literally zero impact on our day-to-day lives. Governor O'Malley came out in favor of it and the majority of votes needed to pass it through the General Assembly were found. Recently President Obama announced support for it. Now that public opinion shows a small majority in favor, politicians are able to come out of the wood work and announce their support for it. Republicans are still held captive by their conservative wings. Having spoken to quite a few local Republican politicians off-the-record, I can say that they recognize the absurdity of banning same-sex marriages. They are personally in favor of same-sex marriages but they can't step forward for fear of being bashed by their own party and voters. My prediction is that in 10-15 years, these same Republicans will be talking about how they quietly supported same-sex marriage and suppressing their shameful voting history up until now. The tides of history are marching forward. Shame on you North Carolina.

How to Conquer a Planet

I recently watched the movie "Battle Los Angeles" and I liked it more than I thought I would. It was an alien invasion/Marine recruitment video.

I also have a few thoughts for the aliens: If you can bring an army to Earth, clearly you have the technological upper-hand. Why would you even bother to land the troops? You control the high-ground. *Spoiler alert* They make it clear that your species is tracking us using our own radios and cell-phones. Wouldn't it be easier to take out our satellites and drop rocks on our major cities?

The movie did not get into the aliens motivation although it implied it was to take our precious, precious water. You could have sent a mini-team to the center of the Pacific and taken our water to your heart's content. Why the invasion?

And so people don't think that I'm rooting for the bad-guys here, let me give some suggestions to the human side. NASA was able to track the aliens spacecraft and the military was able to mobilize in time. Heck, the military was even able to track the aliens communications network and pinpoint the weak links. Let me clarify: the United States was able to track the aliens and deploy their military.

How awesome is that? The United States is the primary line of defense for the entire planet. That's a pretty serious responsibility when you think about it.

And I'm not saying that an alien invasion is likely, but wouldn't you want the ability to take the fight to them? Where's our space program? Where's our moon bases and Battlestar's ready to stop alien invaders or even rouge asteroids?

It's not the kind of thing that the private sector is likely to take up. It sounds like something that would fall to the government sector.

Also, if humans set out to conquer an alien planet, it would be good for us to have the high-ground. We don't want to needlessly sacrifice space marines.

Everything is Awesome!

Maybe it's just spring, but I'm in a good mood.

Things are good all around and getting better. Don't believe the nay-sayers and downers. Ignore the news. Most importantly, ignore the politicians. The sky is not falling. If you vote for the wrong person, you will not die.

That's progress! Only a hundred years ago, if you voted for the wrong person (or backed the wrong dictator), you were killed. Hardly anyone does that anymore. Syria is becoming a pariah nation for just that reason. We all nod approvingly at the Arab Spring movement throwing out all the dictators. Freedom is contagious.

The world is more free today than it was when I was born. There is no Soviet empire threatening the world with nuclear disaster. Some people have tried to puff China up into the next evil empire but China is too busy making money to be the bad guy. China is our third largest trade partner (Canada and Mexico being the first two). A war with China would devastate our economy.

The world is healthier now than it was when I was born. Infant mortalitiy is steadily creeping downwards. Heart attacks are no longer the death sentence that they used to be. My grandmother recently had open-heart surgery and she was in the hospital for less than a week! That's amazing!

People are living longer.

Incomes...well incomes have stagnated for most folk. But the wonderful stuff that they can buy! Ipads, cellphones, electric cars, organic food, plane tickets to Nepal, etc., etc.

I could spend most of my time gushing about science and technological progress. I'm trying to restrain myself but Wow! We can have glow-in-the-dark kittens. The Voyager spacecraft which were launched around when I was born are now leaving the solar system. They have gold records in case they get picked up by any alien intelligence. How many people have a record-player in their home anymore?

We live in a world where James Cameron, a movie director, can be a deep-sea explorer. Space travel for the rich is on the cusp of becoming a reality.

So all you political junkies out there, relax and smell the roses. There will always be politics and problems. And there will always be heroes and solutions.

Social Security

I'm self-employed. I support my family. My wife is going back to school for her nursing degree. It's very possible that in the future she will have a job with some sort of retirement benefits. We're doing quite well but we don't save nearly enough for retirement.

I have insurance for my life, car, home, health and malpractice. I do not have insurance for disability.

I'm a big fan of Social Security. It has been one of the most successful government programs of all time. It took a demographic, old people, that had been one of the poorest and neglected demographics and gave them a foundation to live on.

To plug into Social Security all you have to do is work. I earned it working at McDonalds and I'm earning it now as a lawyer. Mitt Romney and President Obama both earned it and are eligible for social security benefits. I'm pretty sure Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are also eligible for benefits.

Social Security is my back-up retirement plan. If my IRA tanks, I know that I at least have a minimum income when I retire.

Social Security is my disability insurance. If I become disabled, I know that I can draw on social security.

Social Security is my life insurance supplement. If I die with minor children, I know that they will be eligible for some benefits.

To me, Social Security is part of my overall financial planning. I'm glad it's there. But to most people, let's call them "the 80%", Social Security is their lifeblood. It is literally their only retirement plan. It is their only disability insurance. When they die, Social Security is the only thing their kids will be able to get.

And that's why it is so important to defend Social Security from selfish people who would attack it.